CTA Positioning: Measures momentum-following positioning using triple EMA convergence. Values range from -50 (max short) to +50 (max long).
Fast Mode: Uses 20/50/100 day EMAs for more responsive signals.
Slow Mode: Uses 50/100/200 day EMAs for longer-term trends.
Exhaustion Signals: Red markers on charts indicate when extreme positioning unwinds, suggesting potential trend exhaustion and reversal opportunities. Signals require rolling 2-year percentile confirmation, rate-of-change filter, and RSI of positioning confirmation. Numbers on markers show the signal strength score (0–100).
| Date | Currency | Direction | Mode | Score | Peak Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-07 | KRW | ▲ Long ✓ Consensus | FAST | 88 | 50.0 |
| 2023-05-18 | JPY | ▼ Short ✓ Consensus | FAST | 88 | -35.1 |
| 2018-09-19 | CZK | ▲ Long ✓ Consensus | FAST | 85 | 31.5 |
| 2021-05-21 | CHF | ▲ Long ✓ Consensus | FAST | 80 | 25.1 |
| 2023-02-27 | THB | ▼ Short | FAST | 80 | -50.0 |
| 2022-11-10 | JPY | ▲ Long | FAST | 80 | 50.0 |
| 2020-06-08 | CZK | ▲ Long | FAST | 80 | 50.0 |
| 2020-06-05 | BRL | ▲ Long | FAST | 80 | 50.0 |
| 2020-06-02 | PLN | ▲ Long | FAST | 80 | 50.0 |
| 2020-05-26 | COP | ▲ Long | FAST | 80 | 50.0 |
| 2022-07-28 | CHF | ▲ Long | FAST | 78 | 48.5 |
| 2023-03-07 | SGD | ▼ Short | FAST | 78 | -48.1 |
| 2020-04-13 | PEN | ▲ Long | FAST | 75 | 46.2 |
| 2022-03-29 | SEK | ▲ Long | FAST | 73 | 43.6 |
| 2023-04-18 | KRW | ▼ Short | FAST | 72 | -40.2 |
| 2022-11-09 | THB | ▲ Long | FAST | 71 | 48.7 |
| 2021-03-26 | TRY | ▼ Short ✓ Consensus | FAST | 71 | -14.7 |
| 2020-03-06 | CZK | ▼ Short | FAST | 71 | -42.9 |
| 2016-05-19 | TRY | ▼ Short ✓ Consensus | FAST | 70 | -13.4 |
| 2022-11-07 | NZD | ▼ Short | FAST | 69 | -43.1 |
| Date | Currency | Direction | Mode | Score | Peak Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | COP | ▼ Short | FAST | 19 | -18.0 |
| 2026-03-02 | SEK | ▼ Short | FAST | 26 | -33.6 |
| 2026-02-19 | PHP | ▲ Long | SLOW | 6 | 14.6 |
| 2026-02-19 | CZK | ▼ Short | SLOW | 4 | -18.0 |
| 2026-02-16 | JPY | ▲ Long | SLOW | 5 | 19.1 |
| 2026-02-04 | THB | ▼ Short | FAST | 14 | -18.7 |
| 2026-01-27 | JPY | ▲ Long | FAST | 43 | 27.6 |
| 2026-01-23 | PEN | ▼ Short | FAST | 15 | -29.9 |
| 2026-01-19 | CZK | ▼ Short | FAST | 5 | -11.0 |
| 2026-01-15 | HUF | ▼ Short | FAST | 11 | -22.1 |