📊 CTA Exhaustion Signals

Currencies Tracked

25

Fast Mode Windows

20/50/100

Slow Mode Windows

50/100/200

Fast Signals (Total)

562

Last Updated

2026-06-03

How It Works

CTA Positioning: Measures momentum-following positioning using triple EMA convergence. Values range from -50 (max short) to +50 (max long).

Fast Mode: Uses 20/50/100 day EMAs for more responsive signals.

Slow Mode: Uses 50/100/200 day EMAs for longer-term trends.

Exhaustion Signals: Red markers on charts indicate when extreme positioning unwinds, suggesting potential trend exhaustion and reversal opportunities. Signals require rolling 2-year percentile confirmation, rate-of-change filter, and RSI of positioning confirmation. Numbers on markers show the signal strength score (0–100).

View Individual Currency Charts

Moving Average Window:

Last updated: 2026-06-03 06:57 UTC

AI Commentary

Generated 2026-06-03 11:52 UTC · google/gemma-4-31B-it

CTA Positioning Analysis: 2026-06-03

Executive Summary Table

Currency	Position (Fast/Slow)	Fast Signal	Slow Signal	Key Observation
INR	+38.9 / +46.8	Bullish	Bullish	Extreme long; crowded trade risk
HUF	-42.4 / -38.6	Bearish	Bearish	Deeply oversold; squeeze candidate
EUR	-2.0 / 0.0	Bearish	Neutral	Fast-mode flip; momentum fading
IDR	+18.5 / +29.3	Bullish	Bullish	Strong acceleration in both modes
AUD	+16.0 / +33.8	Bullish	Bullish	Slow mode conviction > Fast mode

1. Positioning Extremes

Overbought: INR is the most crowded long across both timeframes (+38.9 Fast / +46.8 Slow). This suggests a high-conviction trend but increases vulnerability to a sharp "unwinding" event.
Oversold: HUF is severely shorted (-42.4 Fast / -38.6 Slow). Such extremity often signals a transition from a trend-following play to an exhaustion/mean-reversion setup.

2. Fast vs. Slow Mode Divergences

EUR & SGD: These exhibit a "bullish fade." While Slow mode is neutral or short, Fast mode is moving toward neutral/short (