Federal Reserve District Monitor

Research & Blog Publications Tracker | February 2, 2026

77

Total Publications

27

New Since Jan 6

7

Districts Tracked

24

NY Fed (Most Active)

Key Themes This Period

Labor Markets & Demographics

  • Immigration's impact on labor force growth
  • Disability in the labor market (earnings gaps)
  • Older workers' employment trends
  • Labor market tightness indicators updated

Trade & Tariffs

  • Historical tariff shock analysis
  • EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
  • Carbon tax circumvention by firms
  • Trade cost measurement methods

Monetary Policy & Finance

  • Data revisions impact on policy
  • Central bank credibility & inflation
  • Interest rate sensitivity to oil
  • Bank resilience to CRE losses

Emerging Risks

  • China manufacturing overcapacity
  • Rising "zombie" firms in China
  • AI impact on young workers
  • Dollar's reserve status challenges

Must-Read for Macro Investors

San Francisco Fed
What Can History Tell Us About Tariff Shocks?
2025's tariff increase is the largest in the modern era. Historical analysis shows tariffs correlate with higher unemployment, lower activity, and lower inflation. Uncertainty may suppress aggregate demand and produce deflationary pressure.
San Francisco Fed
The Recent Slowdown in Labor Supply and Demand
Slowing labor force growth coinciding with slowdown in job growth. Important for understanding Fed's dual mandate considerations.
Dallas Fed
Young workers' employment drops in occupations with high AI exposure
AI adoption correlating with rising joblessness among younger demographics. Structural implications for labor markets.
New York Fed
Measuring Labor Market Tightness: Data Update
Updated indicator through 2025. Highlighted as best predictor of wage inflation.

New Publications by District

New York Fed

9 new
January 14, 2026 NEW
Understating Rising Quality Means Import Price Inflation Is Overstated
Danial Lashkari
Examines how quality improvements in imported goods aren't properly captured in official price indices, suggesting import inflation has been overstated.
January 12, 2026 NEW
Disability in the Labor Market: Earnings
Rajashri Chakrabarti, Thu Pham, Beck Pierce, Maxim L. Pinkovskiy
Analyzes earnings disparities between workers with and without disabilities, finding significantly lower weekly earnings for disabled workers.
January 12, 2026 NEW
Disability in the Labor Market: Employment and Participation
Rajashri Chakrabarti, Thu Pham, Beck Pierce, Maxim L. Pinkovskiy
First in companion series examining how workers with disabilities participate in labor markets at lower rates than their counterparts.
January 8, 2026 NEW
Measuring Labor Market Tightness: Data Update and New Web Feature
Sebastian Heise, Jeremy Pearce, Jacob P. Weber
Updates labor market tightness indicator through 2025; highlights it as the best predictor of wage inflation.
January 7, 2026 NEW
What Is a Carbon Tariff and Why Is the EU Imposing One?
Pierre Coster, Julian di Giovanni, Isabelle Mejean
Explores the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, explaining its purpose in addressing carbon leakage.
January 7, 2026 NEW
What Can Undermine a Carbon Tax?
Pierre Coster, Julian di Giovanni, Isabelle Mejean
Companion post demonstrating how firms circumvent carbon taxes through increased imports of high-emission inputs.
January 5, 2026 NEW
Which Entrepreneurs Boost Productivity?
Ufuk Akcigit, Harun Alp, Jeremy Pearce, Marta Prato
Analyzes Danish entrepreneurship data, identifying 'transformative' entrepreneurs as primary drivers of productivity gains.
December 22, 2025 NEW
A New Public Data Source: Call Reports from 1959 to 2025
Sergio Correia, Tiffany Fermin, Stephan Luck, Emil Verner
Announces newly available time-consistent banking balance sheet and income statement data spanning decades.
December 17, 2025 NEW
Letters of Recommendation in the PhD Job Market: Lessons from Specialized Banks
Kristian S. Blickle, Cecilia Parlatore
Applies banking specialization concepts to academic hiring, analyzing how recommendation letters function as quality signals.

Dallas Fed

6 new
January 15, 2026 NEW
Real-time house price model shows U.S. housing market firming
Tryg Aanenson, Erik Andres Escayola, Enrique Martínez García, et al.
Examines how residential property valuations connect to consumer behavior and broader economic patterns using real-time modeling.
January 13, 2026 NEW
New data show intensifying unauthorized immigration decline
Daniel Wilson, Xiaoqing Zhou
Analyzes demographic shifts in undocumented migration patterns and their effects on workforce dynamics.
January 6, 2026 NEW
Young workers' employment drops in occupations with high AI exposure
Tyler Atkinson, Shane Yamco
Investigates whether artificial intelligence adoption correlates with rising joblessness among younger demographics.
December 31, 2025 NEW
Global Institute presentation: Steve Kamin on the dollar's status
Enrique Martínez García, Mark Wynne
Discusses challenges to U.S. currency's international reserve position amid trade policy shifts.
December 30, 2025 NEW
China manufacturing overcapacity boosts output, stagnation fears
Brendan Kelly, J. Scott Davis
Examines sustainability of Chinese industrial production amid widespread firm losses.
December 23, 2025 NEW
China debt overhang leads to rising share of 'zombie' firms
J. Scott Davis, Brendan Kelly
Analyzes credit expansion effects on non-viable enterprises in China's private sector.

Richmond Fed

5 new
January 15, 2026 NEW
How Does the Foreign-Born Population Affect Labor Force Growth?
Santiago Pinto
Examines the role of immigration in driving U.S. labor force growth and its demographic implications.
January 10, 2026 NEW
Home Health Care and Aging in Place
John Bailey Jones, Yue Li, Urvi Neelakantan
Examines home health care services and their role in enabling older Americans to age in their homes.
January 5, 2026 NEW
How Data Revisions and Uncertainty Affect Monetary Policy
Thomas A. Lubik, Jacob Titcomb
Analyzes how economic data revisions and measurement uncertainty complicate monetary policy decisions.
December 20, 2025 NEW
How Secondary Trade Affects Social Welfare in an Over-the-Counter Market
Nicholas Trachter, Spencer Cooper-Ohm
Examines how secondary market trading in OTC markets affects overall social welfare.
December 15, 2025 NEW
The Value of Government Services: Evidence From Flight Delays During the 2025 Shutdown
Russell Wong
Quantifies the economic cost of reduced government services using flight delay data from the 2025 government shutdown.

Minneapolis Fed

4 new
January 30, 2026 NEW
Why Do Households Save and Work?
Margherita Borella, Mariacristina De Nardi, Johanna Torres Chain, Fang Yang
Examines household motivations for savings and labor supply decisions.
January 30, 2026 NEW
A Macroeconomic Perspective on Stock Market Valuation Ratios
Andrew Atkeson, Jonathan Heathcote, Fabrizio Perri
Analyzes stock market valuations from a macroeconomic framework perspective.
January 16, 2026 NEW
Understanding Eligibility and Take-Up in State Unemployment Insurance Programs
Juliet Cramer, Ryan Nunn
Examines factors affecting unemployment insurance eligibility and participation rates across states.
January 16, 2026 NEW
Intergenerational Welfare Assessments
Sergi Barcons, Eduardo Dávila, Andreas Schaab
Develops framework for evaluating welfare across generations.

San Francisco Fed

2 new
January 12, 2026 NEW
The Recent Slowdown in Labor Supply and Demand
Leila Bengali, Ingrid Chen, Addie New-Schmidt, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau
Examines how slowing labor force growth coincided with a slowdown in job growth.
December 15, 2025 NEW
The Changing Sensitivity of Interest Rates to Oil Supply News
Wataru Miyamoto, Rami Najjar, Thuy Lan Nguyen, Dmitriy Sergeyev
Analyzes how interest rate responses to oil supply shocks have evolved over time.

Atlanta Fed

1 new
December 4, 2025 NEW
The Economic Life of Our Country: Talking About Payments with Claire Greene
David Pendered
Profiles Atlanta Fed researcher Claire Greene who examines how new technology and shifting consumer preferences shape the payments ecosystem.

Publications by District (All Time)

District Total Blog Research
New York Fed 24 24 0
Minneapolis Fed 18 0 18
Dallas Fed 17 0 17
San Francisco Fed 11 0 11
Richmond Fed 10 0 10
St. Louis Fed 5 0 5
Atlanta Fed 3 3 0