Since the provided monitoring window contains only two substantive entries (and several empty placeholders), I have focused the briefing on the available analytical data.
1. [NY] In What Ways Has U.S. Trade with China Changed?
The research indicates that despite aggressive shifts in trade policy, the overall U.S. trade deficit remains stubbornly persistent. This suggests that trade diversion (shifting imports to other nations) is offsetting direct decoupling, implying that tariffs are failing to improve the structural trade balance.
2. [STL] The Dual Beveridge Curve
This analysis examines the relationship between job vacancies and unemployment, likely focusing on the "mismatch" or efficiency of the labor market. For our outlook, this is critical for determining whether the Fed can achieve a "soft landing" or if structural labor frictions will keep inflation elevated even as unemployment rises.
Synthesis: The current research suggests a disconnect between policy intent and macroeconomic outcomes, specifically regarding trade balances and labor market efficiency. We should maintain a cautious stance on "decoupling" narratives and closely monitor labor mismatch data as a primary driver of sticky inflation.
The analysis examines recent shifts in U.S.-China trade policy, noting that significant policy changes have had minimal impact on the overall trade balance. Despite volatility, the U.S. trade deficit remained stable while China's global trade surplus increased.
Over the past year, U.S. trade policy with China has undergone enormous changes, but with surprisingly little effect on overall trade balances. In fact, the U.S.’s twelve-month trade deficit, while highly volatile due to import front-running early in the year, ended 2025 at $1.2 trillion, almost unchanged from 2024. At the same time, China’s trade surplus with the world actually increased from $1 trillion to $1.2 trillion. However, when looking at changes between individual countries, one sees large shifts in bilateral balances. In this post, we will focus on changing trade flows between the U
The paper explores the Dual Beveridge Curve to analyze the relationship between job vacancies and unemployment. It likely examines how labor market frictions impact employment outcomes and wage dynamics.