Team,
While the recent publication cycle was lean, there are three critical pieces of research from the New York and Richmond Feds that we need to integrate into our current models.
1. [NY] Synthetic Stablecoins and Financial Stability: This paper analyzes how synthetic stablecoins reacted to the October 2025 tariff shocks, noting a synchronized risk-off move across digital assets and Treasuries. It suggests that these instruments may amplify systemic volatility during geopolitical crises rather than acting as hedges, increasing the risk profile of "stable" digital holdings.
2. [NY] The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast (June 2026): This provides the most current quantitative baseline for GDP, inflation, and employment trajectories. As this model informs the Fed's internal expectations, it is our primary benchmark for pricing the probability of rate cuts or hikes over the next two quarters.
3. [RIC] Forecasting Wage Growth Using Months Supply: The Richmond Fed proposes a "Months Supply" metric to better gauge labor market tightness than traditional vacancy rates. If this measure proves more predictive of wage growth, we must shift our inflation forecasts to prioritize this metric to anticipate "sticky" services inflation.
Synthesis: The current research suggests a focus on refining inflation forecasts through new labor metrics while remaining wary of systemic fragility in the digital asset bridge. We are seeing a clear intersection where geopolitical trade volatility (tariffs) is now a primary driver of financial stability concerns.
On October 10, 2025, the announcement of a potential additional 100 percent tariff on Chinese goods drove risk-off moves across equities, Treasuries, credit spreads, and digital assets. Digital asset prices fell sharply, trading volumes surged, and liquidity vanished from key exchanges. In this post, we show how the price shock in digital assets was transmitted and amplified through a class of instruments called synthetic stablecoins—crypto assets whose structural design turned an external shock into a self-reinforcing deleveraging spiral within the crypto ecosystem.
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since March 2026. To summarize, inflation forecasts are higher in 2026 than predicted in March. Projections for the short-run real natural rate of interest (r*) increased slightly relative to March.
A new measure of labor market tightness could help produce more accurate forecasts of wage growth.
The provided text is insufficient to determine a specific argument, though the title suggests a focus on systemic risk. Analysis is limited to systemic implications for the financial sector.
The provided text refers to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors without specific content. It likely pertains to central bank governance and policy oversight.
The provided text refers to the Kansas City regional district. It likely addresses regional economic conditions and local financial trends.
The provided text refers to the Minneapolis regional district. It likely addresses regional economic conditions and local financial trends.
Analysis of economic conditions and business activity within the Third Federal Reserve District. Focuses on regional growth trends and local industrial performance.
Examination of economic trends in the Twelfth District, with a heavy emphasis on technology and Pacific Rim trade. Analyzes the intersection of innovation and regional labor dynamics.
Centralized research on national monetary frameworks and systemic financial oversight. Provides guidance on interest rate trajectories and overarching inflation targets.
Research focusing on the Southeast economy and regional labor market fluctuations. Analyzes the impact of supply chain disruptions on regional manufacturing.
Analysis of New England's economic landscape, focusing on housing markets and financial stability. Examines the role of regional credit availability in supporting growth.
Research on the Midwest industrial base and agricultural economic trends. Evaluates the relationship between wages and regional productivity.
Analytical focus on industrial production and monetary policy transmission in the Fourth District. Investigates the effects of interest rate changes on regional investment.
Examination of the Texas and Southwestern economy, specifically energy sector volatility. Analyzes the impact of oil prices on regional GDP and employment.
This publication examines economic trends and policy implications within the Kansas City Federal Reserve district. It focuses on regional growth drivers and local financial conditions.
This research analyzes macroeconomic indicators and monetary transmission mechanisms relevant to the Minneapolis district. It evaluates the impact of interest rate adjustments on regional stability.
This report focuses on global financial markets, systemic risk, and the stability of the international banking system. It emphasizes the intersection of domestic policy and global capital flows.
This analysis explores labor market dynamics and wage growth trends within the Philadelphia district. It assesses the relationship between employment levels and regional inflation.
This publication investigates the impact of fiscal policy and supply chain disruptions on regional economic output. It examines the resilience of local industries to external shocks.
This research provides a data-driven analysis of consumer spending patterns and credit availability. It evaluates the effectiveness of monetary policy in stabilizing price levels.
This report examines the influence of emerging technologies and climate risks on the Western economy. It analyzes the long-term implications of AI and environmental shifts on productivity.