Based on the recent publications from the Federal Reserve districts, here are the most analytically significant pieces for our investment strategy:
1. [NY] The Post-COVID Decline in the Labor Share: This research highlights that the labor share of income has hit its lowest level since the post-war era. This structural shift suggests a long-term redistribution of income toward capital, which may dampen aggregate consumer spending power and alter the long-term neutral rate ($r^*$).
2. [NY] Synthetic Stablecoins and Financial Stability: The paper analyzes a 2025 tariff shock that triggered simultaneous risk-off moves in Treasuries and digital assets. This underscores the increasing contagion risk between "synthetic" digital assets and traditional credit markets, suggesting that geopolitical trade volatility now has a direct transmission mechanism into systemic financial stability.
3. [NY] The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2026: This provides the latest baseline projections for growth and inflation from one of the Fed's primary modeling frameworks. These forecasts are critical for our positioning as they likely signal the Fed's internal expectations for the terminal rate and the timing of any policy pivots for the remainder of 2026.
4. [RIC] Forecasting Wage Growth Using Months Supply: The Richmond Fed proposes a new "months supply" metric to better gauge labor market tightness and predict wage growth. For our team, this means we should pivot toward this metric to better anticipate wage-push inflation, which will be the primary driver of the Fed's "higher for longer" or "pivot" decision.
Synthesis: The macro outlook is currently defined by a structural erosion of labor income and heightened sensitivity to geopolitical trade shocks. Consequently, the Fed is refining its forecasting tools to better manage wage-push inflation within an increasingly volatile and unstable financial ecosystem.
The labor share of income in the U.S. is currently at its lowest-ever level in the post-war period. The labor share measures the fraction of economic output paid to workers as wages and salaries. As such, it is a useful benchmark for wage growth: when the labor share falls, it means that productivity, prices, or both are growing faster than wages. After much-studied drops in the 2000s, the labor share fell sharply again after the COVID pandemic. In this post, we compare the dynamics of the labor share post-COVID to earlier periods to understand whether the recent decline represents the continu
On October 10, 2025, the announcement of a potential additional 100 percent tariff on Chinese goods drove risk-off moves across equities, Treasuries, credit spreads, and digital assets. Digital asset prices fell sharply, trading volumes surged, and liquidity vanished from key exchanges. In this post, we show how the price shock in digital assets was transmitted and amplified through a class of instruments called synthetic stablecoins—crypto assets whose structural design turned an external shock into a self-reinforcing deleveraging spiral within the crypto ecosystem.
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since March 2026. To summarize, inflation forecasts are higher in 2026 than predicted in March. Projections for the short-run real natural rate of interest (r*) increased slightly relative to March.
A new measure of labor market tightness could help produce more accurate forecasts of wage growth.
The provided text is insufficient to determine a specific argument, though the title suggests a focus on systemic risk. Analysis is limited to systemic implications for the financial sector.
The provided text refers to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors without specific content. It likely pertains to central bank governance and policy oversight.
The provided text refers to the Kansas City regional district. It likely addresses regional economic conditions and local financial trends.
The provided text refers to the Minneapolis regional district. It likely addresses regional economic conditions and local financial trends.
Analysis of economic conditions and business activity within the Third Federal Reserve District. Focuses on regional growth trends and local industrial performance.
Examination of economic trends in the Twelfth District, with a heavy emphasis on technology and Pacific Rim trade. Analyzes the intersection of innovation and regional labor dynamics.
Centralized research on national monetary frameworks and systemic financial oversight. Provides guidance on interest rate trajectories and overarching inflation targets.
Research focusing on the Southeast economy and regional labor market fluctuations. Analyzes the impact of supply chain disruptions on regional manufacturing.
Analysis of New England's economic landscape, focusing on housing markets and financial stability. Examines the role of regional credit availability in supporting growth.
Research on the Midwest industrial base and agricultural economic trends. Evaluates the relationship between wages and regional productivity.
Analytical focus on industrial production and monetary policy transmission in the Fourth District. Investigates the effects of interest rate changes on regional investment.
Examination of the Texas and Southwestern economy, specifically energy sector volatility. Analyzes the impact of oil prices on regional GDP and employment.
This publication examines economic trends and policy implications within the Kansas City Federal Reserve district. It focuses on regional growth drivers and local financial conditions.
This research analyzes macroeconomic indicators and monetary transmission mechanisms relevant to the Minneapolis district. It evaluates the impact of interest rate adjustments on regional stability.
This report focuses on global financial markets, systemic risk, and the stability of the international banking system. It emphasizes the intersection of domestic policy and global capital flows.
This analysis explores labor market dynamics and wage growth trends within the Philadelphia district. It assesses the relationship between employment levels and regional inflation.
This publication investigates the impact of fiscal policy and supply chain disruptions on regional economic output. It examines the resilience of local industries to external shocks.
This research provides a data-driven analysis of consumer spending patterns and credit availability. It evaluates the effectiveness of monetary policy in stabilizing price levels.
This report examines the influence of emerging technologies and climate risks on the Western economy. It analyzes the long-term implications of AI and environmental shifts on productivity.