To: Investment Committee
From: Senior Economist
Date: June 27, 2026
Subject: Analysis of Recent Federal Reserve District Research
I have reviewed the latest research outputs from the Federal Reserve districts. While several entries were incomplete, four publications provide critical signals for our current macro positioning and risk models.
1. [NY] How Resilient Were Emerging Market Economies Through the 2022‑23 U.S. Monetary Tightening Cycle?
This research evaluates the spillover effects of aggressive U.S. rate hikes on EM stability. Understanding these resilience patterns is critical for our EM debt allocations and FX hedging strategies, as it indicates whether the "taper tantrum" vulnerabilities of the past have been structurally mitigated.
2. [NY] The Post‑COVID Decline in the Labor Share
The paper highlights a historic drop in the fraction of economic output paid to workers relative to capital. This shift suggests a fundamental change in income distribution that could dampen long-term aggregate consumption and alter the inflation dynamics the Fed monitors.
3. [RIC] Forecasting Wage Growth Using Months Supply
The Richmond Fed proposes a new "months supply" metric to better gauge labor market tightness and predict wage inflation. If the Federal Reserve integrates this measure into its policy framework, we may see a shift in the timing of rate adjustments based on a more sensitive reading of wage-push pressures.
4. [STL] Work from Home and Interstate Migration
This study examines how the persistence of remote work is driving structural shifts in where the U.S. workforce resides. This is a key input for our real estate valuations, specifically regarding the long-term viability of urban commercial cores versus the growth of secondary regional hubs.
Synthesis:
The current research focus suggests a pivot toward understanding structural "new normals" in labor distribution and geography, alongside a refined approach to forecasting wage inflation. Collectively, these papers signal that traditional macro correlations are shifting, requiring us to update our models for both domestic real estate and global EM risk.
The cross-border spillover effects of shifts in U.S. monetary policy have long been a focus of academics and policymakers alike. A common finding in the literature is that changes in the stance of U.S. monetary policy have sizable effects on economic activity and financial markets in emerging market economies (EMEs). In this post, we analyze one specific aspect of these spillovers: how EMEs fared through the U.S. monetary policy tightening cycle of 2022-23 relative to the predictions of a model, which was calibrated to capture empirically relevant features of these economies based on historica
The labor share of income in the U.S. is currently at its lowest-ever level in the post-war period. The labor share measures the fraction of economic output paid to workers as wages and salaries. As such, it is a useful benchmark for wage growth: when the labor share falls, it means that productivity, prices, or both are growing faster than wages. After much-studied drops in the 2000s, the labor share fell sharply again after the COVID pandemic. In this post, we compare the dynamics of the labor share post-COVID to earlier periods to understand whether the recent decline represents the continu
A new measure of labor market tightness could help produce more accurate forecasts of wage growth.