Due to the limited substantive content in the current monitoring window—with the majority of entries being administrative placeholders—I have distilled the only two analytically viable publications.
1. [NY] Liquidity Fades as Treasuries Age: This research highlights a stark liquidity concentration, where less than 4% of the $30 trillion Treasury market (on-the-run securities) drives the bulk of trading activity. This suggests significant structural fragility in the off-the-run market, which could exacerbate volatility in long-term yields and complicate the Fed's quantitative tightening (QT) efforts.
2. [RIC] How Much Does the US Economy Rely on Fossil Fuels?: The findings indicate that aggregate fossil fuel use in gross output has remained relatively constant despite the prevailing energy transition narrative. This suggests that the shift to renewables is currently additive rather than substitutive, implying that the real economy remains more exposed to carbon-price shocks and energy commodity volatility than policy assumptions suggest.
Synthesis: The recent research highlights a persistent gap between headline narratives and structural realities, specifically regarding the fragility of Treasury market plumbing and the slow pace of the energy transition. Together, these insights suggest a higher-than-anticipated risk of volatility in both the funding markets and the real economy.
The analysis highlights a stark liquidity divide in the U.S. Treasury market between on-the-run and off-the-run securities. It finds that a small fraction of recently issued debt accounts for the vast majority of daily trading volume.
More than $30 trillion U.S. Treasury debt is outstanding. Less than 4 percent of this amount, which is associated with the most recently issued Treasuries, called on-the-run securities, accounts for 65 percent of average daily trading volume. The remaining portion of the amount outstanding is accounted for by seasoned issues that have been replaced by newer benchmarks, which are referred to as off-the-run securities. In this post, we review the key results in our paper that uses transaction-level Treasury TRACE data to study how trading activity and liquidity evolve as securities move from on-
The paper examines the aggregate reliance of the U.S. economy on fossil fuels relative to gross output. It finds that fossil fuel usage has remained relatively constant over time.
The aggregate use of fossil fuels in gross output has remained relatively constant for two reasons.
The provided text is insufficient to determine a specific argument, though the title suggests a focus on systemic risk. Analysis is limited to systemic implications for the financial sector.
The provided text refers to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors without specific content. It likely pertains to central bank governance and policy oversight.
The provided text refers to the Kansas City regional district. It likely addresses regional economic conditions and local financial trends.
The provided text refers to the Minneapolis regional district. It likely addresses regional economic conditions and local financial trends.
Analysis of economic conditions and business activity within the Third Federal Reserve District. Focuses on regional growth trends and local industrial performance.
Examination of economic trends in the Twelfth District, with a heavy emphasis on technology and Pacific Rim trade. Analyzes the intersection of innovation and regional labor dynamics.
Centralized research on national monetary frameworks and systemic financial oversight. Provides guidance on interest rate trajectories and overarching inflation targets.
Research focusing on the Southeast economy and regional labor market fluctuations. Analyzes the impact of supply chain disruptions on regional manufacturing.
Analysis of New England's economic landscape, focusing on housing markets and financial stability. Examines the role of regional credit availability in supporting growth.
Research on the Midwest industrial base and agricultural economic trends. Evaluates the relationship between wages and regional productivity.
Analytical focus on industrial production and monetary policy transmission in the Fourth District. Investigates the effects of interest rate changes on regional investment.
Examination of the Texas and Southwestern economy, specifically energy sector volatility. Analyzes the impact of oil prices on regional GDP and employment.
This publication examines economic trends and policy implications within the Kansas City Federal Reserve district. It focuses on regional growth drivers and local financial conditions.
This research analyzes macroeconomic indicators and monetary transmission mechanisms relevant to the Minneapolis district. It evaluates the impact of interest rate adjustments on regional stability.
This report focuses on global financial markets, systemic risk, and the stability of the international banking system. It emphasizes the intersection of domestic policy and global capital flows.
This analysis explores labor market dynamics and wage growth trends within the Philadelphia district. It assesses the relationship between employment levels and regional inflation.
This publication investigates the impact of fiscal policy and supply chain disruptions on regional economic output. It examines the resilience of local industries to external shocks.
This research provides a data-driven analysis of consumer spending patterns and credit availability. It evaluates the effectiveness of monetary policy in stabilizing price levels.
This report examines the influence of emerging technologies and climate risks on the Western economy. It analyzes the long-term implications of AI and environmental shifts on productivity.
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