MEMORANDUM
TO: Investment Committee
FROM: Senior Economist
DATE: July 11, 2026
SUBJECT: Analysis of Recent Federal Reserve District Research
Based on the recent monitoring window, the available data is heavily skewed toward the New York Fed's analysis of trade policy. Most other district entries are currently placeholders or index listings without substantive findings. Consequently, the analytical focus is concentrated on the inflationary and operational impacts of the current tariff regime.
1. [NY] Effect of Tariffs on U.S. Small Businesses
This research utilizes 2025 data to fill a critical information gap regarding how small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs) are absorbing trade costs. It is significant because SMEs lack the hedging capabilities of multinationals, meaning their failure or contraction could signal a broader systemic risk to employment and domestic supply chain resilience.
2. [NY] More Tariff Pass‑Through Is in the Pipeline
The Fed identifies a lagging effect where initial tariff costs are only now being passed through to consumers following a pivotal Supreme Court decision. This suggests that the "inflationary impulse" from trade policy is not a one-time shock but a sustained trend, likely complicating the Fed's path toward its inflation target.
3. [RIC] When the Mortgage Becomes the Backup Plan: Debt and Disaster Insurance
This paper highlights a correlation between high home equity and a decline in flood insurance maintenance, as homeowners treat their equity as a self-insurance fund. For our outlook, this indicates a potential increase in systemic credit risk and a higher likelihood of catastrophic losses hitting the banking sector during climate events.
Synthesis: The prevailing research suggests a dual-threat environment: a delayed but persistent inflationary wave driven by tariff pass-through and a hidden vulnerability in the housing market regarding disaster risk. We should brace for "sticky" inflation and a potential re-evaluation of mortgage risk premiums in flood-prone regions.
This analysis utilizes the Small Business Credit Survey to evaluate the impact of tariffs on small businesses across the U.S. and the Second District. It aims to fill a data gap regarding how trade barriers affect small-scale enterprise operations and credit needs.
How has the recent implementation of tariffs affected small businesses? Due to lack of data, little is known about this issue. In this Liberty Street Economics post, we use data from the 2025 edition of the Small Business Credit Survey (SBCS) to explore this question for businesses nationally and in the Second District (defined, for the purpose of this study, as New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut). We find that the majority of national firms in the goods and retail sectors reported experiencing financial challenges due to tariffs in 2025, with even larger shares of regional firms doing so.
The paper examines how businesses respond to sweeping U.S. trade policy changes and new tariffs. It analyzes the trade-off between absorbing increased costs through profit margins versus passing them on to consumers via higher prices.
The past year brought dramatic changes to U.S. trade policy, including sweeping new tariffs, as well as a Supreme Court decision that further reshaped the tariff landscape. Many businesses saw their costs increase significantly and faced complex decisions about whether to absorb the tariffs through lower profit margins, raise their prices to recover the higher costs, or some combination of the two. Last year, we found that most businesses had passed on at least some of these higher costs to their customers through higher prices. Now, over a year later, have businesses finished adjusting prices
This research explores the relationship between homeowner equity and the maintenance of flood insurance. It suggests that mortgage debt levels may act as a substitute for disaster insurance in the event of a loss.
The amount of equity homeowners have may influence whether they maintain flood insurance.
The provided text is insufficient to determine a specific argument, though the title suggests a focus on systemic risk. Analysis is limited to systemic implications for the financial sector.
The provided text refers to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors without specific content. It likely pertains to central bank governance and policy oversight.
The provided text refers to the Kansas City regional district. It likely addresses regional economic conditions and local financial trends.
The provided text refers to the Minneapolis regional district. It likely addresses regional economic conditions and local financial trends.
Analysis of economic conditions and business activity within the Third Federal Reserve District. Focuses on regional growth trends and local industrial performance.
Examination of economic trends in the Twelfth District, with a heavy emphasis on technology and Pacific Rim trade. Analyzes the intersection of innovation and regional labor dynamics.
Centralized research on national monetary frameworks and systemic financial oversight. Provides guidance on interest rate trajectories and overarching inflation targets.
Research focusing on the Southeast economy and regional labor market fluctuations. Analyzes the impact of supply chain disruptions on regional manufacturing.
Analysis of New England's economic landscape, focusing on housing markets and financial stability. Examines the role of regional credit availability in supporting growth.
Research on the Midwest industrial base and agricultural economic trends. Evaluates the relationship between wages and regional productivity.
Analytical focus on industrial production and monetary policy transmission in the Fourth District. Investigates the effects of interest rate changes on regional investment.
Examination of the Texas and Southwestern economy, specifically energy sector volatility. Analyzes the impact of oil prices on regional GDP and employment.
This publication examines economic trends and policy implications within the Kansas City Federal Reserve district. It focuses on regional growth drivers and local financial conditions.
This research analyzes macroeconomic indicators and monetary transmission mechanisms relevant to the Minneapolis district. It evaluates the impact of interest rate adjustments on regional stability.
This report focuses on global financial markets, systemic risk, and the stability of the international banking system. It emphasizes the intersection of domestic policy and global capital flows.
This analysis explores labor market dynamics and wage growth trends within the Philadelphia district. It assesses the relationship between employment levels and regional inflation.
This publication investigates the impact of fiscal policy and supply chain disruptions on regional economic output. It examines the resilience of local industries to external shocks.
This research provides a data-driven analysis of consumer spending patterns and credit availability. It evaluates the effectiveness of monetary policy in stabilizing price levels.
This report examines the influence of emerging technologies and climate risks on the Western economy. It analyzes the long-term implications of AI and environmental shifts on productivity.
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