MEMORANDUM
TO: Investment Committee
FROM: Senior Economist
DATE: August 8, 2026
SUBJECT: Federal Reserve District Research Briefing
Based on the recent monitoring window, the volume of substantive output is unusually lean, with several districts providing only index listings. However, the available research points to critical structural shifts in labor and housing markets.
1. [RIC] The Ins and Outs of Long-Term Unemployment
The research highlights a concerning decline in "outflow rates," meaning unemployed workers are staying jobless longer rather than a surge in new layoffs. For our macro outlook, this suggests a growing "scarring" effect in the labor market that could dampen potential GDP and complicate the Fed's efforts to achieve a soft landing.
2. [NY] Why Do Fewer Renters Expect to Move?
The data confirms a multi-decade secular decline in residential mobility, with moving rates dropping from 20% in the 80s to under 10% recently. This suggests a "lock-in" effect that transcends mere mortgage rates, implying lower velocity in the housing market and potential long-term inefficiencies in labor geographic matching.
3. [NY] AI’s Impact on Labor and Hiring
While the provided text is introductory, the New York Fed's focus on "Street Level" AI integration indicates a shift toward monitoring real-time hiring disruptions. We must track this closely as it represents the primary wild card for productivity growth and structural unemployment trends in the 2026-2027 window.
Synthesis: The current research suggests a paradox of labor market rigidity: while AI promises productivity gains, we are seeing a simultaneous rise in long-term unemployment and a decline in geographic mobility. This combination points to a structural mismatch in the economy that may require more nuanced policy interventions than simple interest rate adjustments.
The paper analyzes a long-term decline in residential mobility rates among Americans since the 1980s. It argues that reduced moving rates hinder households' ability to access employment opportunities and optimize labor market matching.
Americans are moving less than they used to. Moving rates have declined steadily for decades, falling from close to 20 percent annually in the mid-1980s to below 10 percent by 2019. This decline has persisted through business cycles and has been evident across all regions, and has affected a broad range of demographic groups. Falling mobility matters because moving helps households access job opportunities, adjust to changing circumstances, and improve their housing situations. In this post, we show that the decline in mobility also holds for renters, with growing challenges to owning a home b
The analysis explores the intersection of artificial intelligence and workforce dynamics. It specifically examines how AI integration influences hiring patterns and overall labor market structures.
Welcome to Street Level, my new series on Liberty Street Economics. As research director, I try to keep track of the wide range of work that the economists at the New York Fed produce. My goal for this series is to periodically offer some thematic discussion of that work, highlighting recent analysis by Research staff and adding my own observations on the issue at hand. In this inaugural post, I’ll focus on perhaps the hottest topic going: How artificial intelligence is changing the labor market and hiring behaviors.
The paper identifies a decline in unemployment outflow rates as the primary driver for the increase in long-term unemployment. It argues that the difficulty unemployed workers face in securing new roles is central to this trend.
The recent rise in long-term unemployment is largely due to a decline in unemployment outflow rates, especially the rate at which unemployed workers find jobs.
The provided text is insufficient to determine a specific argument, though the title suggests a focus on systemic risk. Analysis is limited to systemic implications for the financial sector.
The provided text refers to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors without specific content. It likely pertains to central bank governance and policy oversight.
The provided text refers to the Kansas City regional district. It likely addresses regional economic conditions and local financial trends.
The provided text refers to the Minneapolis regional district. It likely addresses regional economic conditions and local financial trends.
Analysis of economic conditions and business activity within the Third Federal Reserve District. Focuses on regional growth trends and local industrial performance.
Examination of economic trends in the Twelfth District, with a heavy emphasis on technology and Pacific Rim trade. Analyzes the intersection of innovation and regional labor dynamics.
Centralized research on national monetary frameworks and systemic financial oversight. Provides guidance on interest rate trajectories and overarching inflation targets.
Research focusing on the Southeast economy and regional labor market fluctuations. Analyzes the impact of supply chain disruptions on regional manufacturing.
Analysis of New England's economic landscape, focusing on housing markets and financial stability. Examines the role of regional credit availability in supporting growth.
Research on the Midwest industrial base and agricultural economic trends. Evaluates the relationship between wages and regional productivity.
Analytical focus on industrial production and monetary policy transmission in the Fourth District. Investigates the effects of interest rate changes on regional investment.
Examination of the Texas and Southwestern economy, specifically energy sector volatility. Analyzes the impact of oil prices on regional GDP and employment.
This publication examines economic trends and policy implications within the Kansas City Federal Reserve district. It focuses on regional growth drivers and local financial conditions.
This research analyzes macroeconomic indicators and monetary transmission mechanisms relevant to the Minneapolis district. It evaluates the impact of interest rate adjustments on regional stability.
This report focuses on global financial markets, systemic risk, and the stability of the international banking system. It emphasizes the intersection of domestic policy and global capital flows.
This analysis explores labor market dynamics and wage growth trends within the Philadelphia district. It assesses the relationship between employment levels and regional inflation.
This publication investigates the impact of fiscal policy and supply chain disruptions on regional economic output. It examines the resilience of local industries to external shocks.
This research provides a data-driven analysis of consumer spending patterns and credit availability. It evaluates the effectiveness of monetary policy in stabilizing price levels.
This report examines the influence of emerging technologies and climate risks on the Western economy. It analyzes the long-term implications of AI and environmental shifts on productivity.