As a senior economist and central bank strategist, I have performed a comparative analysis of the FOMC statements from December 14, 2004, and February 2, 2005.
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2-1/2 percent ~~2-1/4 percent~~.
The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Output appears to be growing at a moderate pace despite ~~the earlier~~ the rise in energy prices, and labor market conditions continue to improve gradually. Inflation and longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained.
The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters to be roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be relatively low, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; ~~Thomas M. Hoenig;~~ Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; ~~Cathy E. Minehan;~~ Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; ~~Sandra Pianalto; and William Poole.~~ Anthony M. Santomero; and Gary H. Stern.
In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25 basis point increase in the discount rate to 3-1/2 percent ~~3-1/4 percent~~. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco.
~~In addition, the Committee unanimously decided to expedite the release of its minutes. Beginning with this meeting, the minutes of regularly scheduled meetings will be released three weeks after the date of the policy decision. The first set of expedited minutes will be released at 2 p.m. EST on January 4, 2005.~~
| Removed | Added | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1/4 percent / 3-1/4 percent | 2-1/2 percent / 3-1/2 percent | Monetary Tightening: Execution of a 25bps hike to the Fed Funds and Discount rates. |
| "the earlier rise" | "the rise" | Current Risk: Suggests energy price pressures are viewed as an ongoing factor rather than a past event. |
| Hoenig, Minehan, Pianalto, Poole | Guynn, Moskow, Santomero, Stern | Governance: Standard rotation of regional bank presidents. |
| Paragraph on expedited minutes | (None) | Administrative: Removal of a one-time announcement regarding operational changes. |
Verdict: Neutral to Slightly Hawkish
The statement is fundamentally a "carbon copy" of the previous release, with the exception of the rate hike itself. While the actual action (raising rates by 25bps) is Hawkish, the accompanying text is Neutral. By keeping the language identical, the Committee is signaling that the economic conditions justifying the previous hike remain unchanged, and therefore, the trajectory of "measured" increases will continue. The only subtle hawkish tilt is the removal of the word "earlier" regarding energy prices, indicating that the Committee is keeping a closer eye on current commodity-driven inflation risks.