Central Banks · Rates
Three world-states for the Fed funds path, priced against SOFR futures Z7 (Dec-2027) and backed out as a probability mix. Enter the live SFRZ7 print below to re-run both grids against current market pricing.
Fed holds at the current 3.75–4.00% target range from here. No further tightening required.
Inflation firms up enough that the Fed claws back 50–75bp of recent precautionary easing.
Inflation re-accelerates or credibility breaks. Fed forced into 150bp+ of genuine tightening.
Rows are probability of Scenario B, columns probability of Scenario C. Scenario A takes whatever probability is left over (100 − B − C). Blank cells are infeasible (B+C>100%).
Rows are probability of Scenario A, columns probability of Scenario B. Scenario C takes the remainder (100 − A − B).
Set P(B) and P(C) directly — P(A) is whatever's left over. Computes the implied Z7 rate and fair value price, and how far that sits from the SFRZ7 price entered above.
For each P(A) level, averages the implied rate across every feasible P(B)/P(C) split (B+C = 100−A), then shows the most hawkish and most dovish split within that row.