Geopolitical instability and the energy transition are forcing oil and gas majors to aggressively restructure assets and supply routes.

Why it matters: Conflict in the Strait of Hormuz threatens global oil flows, while the shift toward net-zero targets creates internal leadership volatility and asset divestment.

The geopolitical squeeze

Supply security: Adnoc is planning a new UAE pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz to mitigate Iranian threats.
Resource wars: China is aggressively pursuing US tungsten, while the US is scaling nuclear fuel production to end reliance on Russia.
Critical minerals: European startups are drilling for lithium under auto factories to break China's market dominance.

Corporate volatility

BP in flux: CEO Meg O’Neill is pursuing a restructuring that includes potential £2bn North Sea asset sales and follows the removal of the company's chair.
Leadership shifts: TotalEnergies shareholders extended Patrick Pouyanné’s tenure beyond 2030 to ensure stability.
Strategic pivots: Adani and Tata Power are positioning for India's opening of the nuclear sector to private firms.

The transition friction

Policy clashes: UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is pushing for an 87% emissions cut by 2040, sparking political opposition.
Execution gaps: Botched heat pump installations are eroding public confidence in government energy transition plans.
Legal battles: Seven US states are suing the government over a $1bn payment intended to push Total back into fossil fuels.

What's next: Expect increased volatility in oil pricing as the "demand shock" from the Iran crisis persists and Western firms accelerate the decoupling of critical mineral chains from China.

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