🛢️ Weekly Petroleum Stocks by PAD District

Last 365 days with 5-year seasonal range — week ending 2026-10-02

Crude Oil Stocks by PADD 2026-10-02
Motor Gasoline Stocks by PADD 2026-10-02
Distillate Fuel Oil Stocks by PADD 2026-10-02

AI Commentary

Generated 2026-10-14 20:51 UTC  ·  google/gemma-4-31B-it

EIA Weekly Petroleum Analysis: Oct 14, 2026

Executive Summary

Product MMBbl WoW Seasonal % Signal
Crude (ex-SPR) 424.1 -3.2 12.8% Bullish
Gasoline 204.7 +0.4 -13.9% Bullish
Distillates 105.1 -0.0 -1.4% Neutral

1. Crude Oil Positioning

  • NUS Total: A healthy 3.2 MMBbl draw brings total stocks to 424.1 MMBbl. Positioning is lean, sitting at only 12.8% of the 5-year seasonal range, suggesting a tight physical market.
  • PADD 3 Highlight: The Gulf Coast remains the primary buffer at 46.9% of its range. While the national average is low, the relative abundance in PADD 3 prevents a full-scale price spike by ensuring refinery feedstock availability.

2. Gasoline Positioning

  • Seasonal Tightness: Despite a marginal WoW build of 0.4 MMBbl, gasoline is significantly undersupplied relative to history (-13.9% of 5yr range).
  • Demand Signal: Extreme tightness in PADD 2 (-71.3%) suggests strong regional demand or refinery outages in the Midwest, providing a strong floor for RBOB prices.

3. Distillate Positioning

  • Seasonal Status: Stocks are essentially flat WoW and hovering just below the 5-year average (-1.4%).
  • Demand Signal: The market is in a "wait-and-see" mode. PADD 5 is notably tight (-34.6%), but PADD 3 and 4 are well-supplied, suggesting diesel demand is stable but not yet surging into winter heating season.

4. Cross-Product Divergences

  • Gasoline vs. Distillates: There is a clear divergence in tightness. Gasoline is aggressively undersupplied (especially in the Midwest), while distillates are balanced. This suggests refiners may be optimizing yields toward diesel/jet fuel over gasoline, or that gasoline consumption is outstripping seasonal expectations.

5. Price Implications

  • WTI: Bullish. Low national crude inventories combined with a weekly draw support upward price pressure.
  • Refined Products: Bullish (Gasoline) / Neutral (Distillates). The severe deficit in gasoline stocks should support a premium in the crack spread, while distillates lack a clear catalyst for a rally.

6. Watchlist for Next Wednesday

  • PADD 2 Gasoline: Monitor if the extreme deficit in the Midwest (-71.3%) persists or recovers; a further draw here could trigger regional price spikes and impact national averages.