Date: 2026-09-23
Coverage Period: 2026-08-24 to 2026-09-23
The RBA has undergone a sharp hawkish pivot over the last 30 days. Governor Michele Bullock and Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser have both issued explicit warnings that inflation remains too high and that the labor market is too "hot." Governor Bullock has signaled that the Board views risks to the outlook as skewed to the upside and has explicitly suggested a September rate hike may be necessary to take "heat" out of the job market. This marks a significant departure from the early 2025 easing cycle, with the RBA now prioritizing the fight against sticky inflation over employment stability, even suggesting that unemployment rising to 4.5%–5.0% would be a desirable outcome to ease price pressures.
| Date | Official | Role | Venue/Context | Key Statement | Policy Signal | Evolution vs Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Michele Bullock | Governor | Speech/Q&A | Higher unemployment (4.5%-5.0%) could ease pressure on inflation; need to take "heat" out of job market. | Hawkish | Shift from Neutral $\rightarrow$ Hawkish |
| 2026-09-18 | Michele Bullock | Governor | House Reps Committee | Inflation is too high; suggested a September rate hike. | Hawkish | Shift from Neutral $\rightarrow$ Hawkish |
| 2026-09-08 | Andrew Hauser | Deputy Governor | AFR/ABC Interview | Inflation is too high and rates may need to rise; "people are furious" but more needs to be done. | Hawkish | Shift from Dovish $\rightarrow$ Hawkish |
| 2026-09-17 | Michele Bullock | Governor | Market Commentary | Risks to outlook were skewed to the upside at the August board meeting. | Hawkish | Shift from Neutral $\rightarrow$ Hawkish |
| Date | Document Type | Title | Key Takeaways | Policy Implications |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Speech | A Wage-price Spiral: What are the Chances? | No current evidence of a wage-price spiral, but labor market tightness remains a risk. | Neutral/Hawkish (Monitoring wages) |
| 2026-08-11 | Decision | Monetary Policy Decision | (Referenced in news) RBA hoped 3 rate rises this year would tame inflation, but results are insufficient. | Hawkish |
1. Trimmed Mean CPI & Inflation Outlook
Inflation is viewed as stubbornly high. July CPI rose to 3.5% YoY, exceeding the 3.2% forecast. The Governor has explicitly stated that inflation is "too high," indicating that the path back to the 2-3% target is more difficult than previously anticipated.
2. Labor Market (employment, participation, wages)
The labor market is now the primary target for restrictive policy. Governor Bullock has signaled a willingness to accept higher unemployment (up to 5.0%) to break inflation. While she noted there is no evidence of a "wage-price spiral" yet, the "heat" in the job market is seen as a primary driver of price pressure.
3. Housing Market & Credit Conditions
No specific new policy guidance provided in the last 30 days, though the general stance is that current conditions are not restrictive enough to curb inflation.
4. AUD / REER & External Sector
No significant updates in the current coverage period.
5. Neutral Rate Estimate & Real Rate Stance
The RBA has shifted its view of the current rate (4.10%) from "restrictive" to merely a "sensible level," implying that the real rate is not high enough to achieve the inflation mandate.
6. Forward Guidance Evolution
Forward guidance has shifted from "data-dependent" to "actively hawkish." The Governor's suggestion of a September hike and the Deputy Governor's warning that "more needs to be done" indicate a high probability of imminent rate increases.
HAWKISH (favor slower easing / higher-for-longer)
├─ Michele Bullock (Explicitly suggesting rate hikes; targeting higher unemployment)
└─ Andrew Hauser (Warned inflation is too high; rates may need to rise)
NEUTRAL/DATA-DEPENDENT
├─ Brad Jones (No public comments found)
├─ Elana Rubin (No public comments found)
├─ Carolyn Hewson (No public comments found)
├─ Marnie Baker (No public comments found)
└─ Alicia Vidotto (No public comments found)
DOVISH (favor faster easing / lower rates)
└─ [None - Previous dovish leanings of Hauser/Fry-McKibbin are currently overridden by recent evidence]
Key Shifts Identified:
* Governor Bullock: Neutral $\rightarrow$ Hawkish.
* Deputy Governor Hauser: Dovish $\rightarrow$ Hawkish.
| Official | Role | Current Stance | Key Quote |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michele Bullock | Governor | Hawkish | "Higher unemployment at 4.5%-5.0% could ease pressure on inflation." |
| Andrew Hauser | Deputy Governor | Hawkish | "Inflation is too high and rates may need to rise." |
| Brad Jones | Asst Gov (Eco) | Neutral | No public comments found. |
| Elana Rubin | External | Neutral | No public comments found. |
| Ian Harper | External | Neutral/Hawkish | Consistent with historical hawkish baseline. |
| Renée Fry-McKibbin | External | Neutral/Dovish | No public comments found. |
| Carolyn Hewson | External | Neutral | No public comments found. |
| Marnie Baker | External | Neutral | No public comments found. |
| Alicia Vidotto | External | Neutral | No public comments found. |
There is strong alignment between the Governor and Deputy Governor in the current cycle. Both have publicly pivoted to a hawkish stance within the same 30-day window. No evidence of dissent is present in the provided data; rather, there is a coordinated effort to prepare the market for a rate hike.