Survey of Professional Forecasters — Forecast Vintage Evolution

Each line traces how the consensus forecast for a given calendar year evolved across successive survey quarters. Older vintages are muted; recent ones are bold. Click legend entries to show/hide individual years.

Notable Downward Revisions (recent target years)

Notable Downward Revisions (recent target years)

Notable Downward Revisions (recent target years)

Notable Downward Revisions (recent target years)

Notable Downward Revisions (recent target years)

Notable Downward Revisions (recent target years)

Notable Downward Revisions (recent target years)

Notable Downward Revisions (recent target years)

Methodology: Growth variables (RGDP, NGDP, GDP Deflator) use SPF Mean Growth files — horizon columns DXXX2–6, where target year = survey year + (horizon − 2). Rate/level variables use Mean Level files — annual-average columns A/B/C/D, offset +0/+1/+2/+3 from survey year. Target years shown every 2 years for 2000–2017, every year for 2018–2026. Colors graduate from steel-blue (old) to red (new). Y-axis percentile bounds computed across all observations for the selected variable.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Survey of Professional Forecasters. Generated: 2026-03-28 23:56 UTC