🏛️ Treasury CTA Exhaustion Signals

Trend-following positioning model applied to 2Y / 5Y / 10Y / 30Y US Treasury yields

Data as of 2026-03-03 Generated 2026-03-05 05:51 FRED: DGS2 · DGS5 · DGS10 · DGS30 Fast (20/50/100) + Slow (50/100/200)
122
Fast Signals (all-time)
78
Slow Signals (all-time)
32
Fast High-Conviction (≥60)
13
Slow High-Conviction (≥60)

Current Treasury Yield Snapshot

Tenor Yield Fast Position Slow Position CTA Lean
2Y3.51%-8.5-15.7Short Duration
5Y3.63%-9.7-10.5Short Duration
10Y4.06%-10.2-6.4Neutral
30Y4.70%-7.6+0.0Neutral

CTA Positioning by Mode

Individual Tenor Charts

Recent Signal History

DateTenorDirection ModeStrengthPeak Pos.
2026-01-0210Y▼ Short DurationSLOW6-14.0
2025-12-315Y▼ Short DurationSLOW8-21.2
2025-12-3130Y▼ Short DurationSLOW30.0
2025-11-1430Y▼ Short DurationFAST25-23.3
2025-11-1010Y▼ Short DurationFAST19-24.6
2025-11-042Y▼ Short DurationFAST13-22.0
2025-10-315Y▼ Short DurationFAST15-21.2
2025-10-085Y▼ Short DurationFAST15-26.5
2025-06-092Y▼ Short DurationSLOW3-10.8
2025-05-1610Y▼ Short DurationSLOW340.0
2025-05-125Y▼ Short DurationFAST17-15.3
2025-04-115Y▼ Short DurationFAST18-15.2

High-Conviction Signals (Score ≥ 60)

DateTenorDirectionModeStrengthPeak Pos.
2016-01-142Y▲ Long DurationFAST8095.2
2015-03-232Y▲ Long DurationFAST8052.2
2015-01-162Y▲ Long DurationFAST8089.5
2014-10-142Y▲ Long DurationFAST8060.8
2014-08-152Y▲ Long DurationFAST8054.4
2024-03-2110Y▼ Short Duration ✓ ConsensusFAST78-22.9
2015-05-112Y▼ Short Duration ✓ ConsensusFAST77-21.4
2022-07-0510Y▲ Long DurationFAST7661.0
2015-04-032Y▲ Long DurationSLOW7672.8
2016-03-102Y▼ Short Duration ✓ ConsensusFAST76-28.5
2022-11-2230Y▲ Long DurationFAST7565.9
2022-11-105Y▲ Long DurationFAST7556.5
2022-07-055Y▲ Long DurationFAST7565.0
2018-03-132Y▲ Long Duration ✓ ConsensusFAST7562.5
2015-03-0410Y▼ Short DurationFAST74-45.8
2015-11-022Y▼ Short Duration ✓ ConsensusFAST74-18.1
2014-10-282Y▲ Long DurationSLOW7445.6
2014-12-295Y▼ Short Duration ✓ ConsensusFAST73-17.2
2023-06-095Y▼ Short Duration ✓ ConsensusFAST71-13.8
2022-11-1510Y▲ Long DurationFAST7060.1