Latest (September 11, 2026): 5.37% | Method: RSI-14 | 16 historical signals | Updated September 13, 2026
Replicates a JPMorgan Global Markets Strategy chart concept: weekly bearish price/momentum divergence on the 30-year Treasury yield as a bond-buy (lower-yield) signal. JPM did not publish its exact formula, so two standard oscillators were computed on DGS30 resampled to weekly (W-FRI) bars — RSI-14 and MACD histogram (12/26/9) — and the one whose signal cadence better matched a "handful of times per decade" framing was used: RSI-14.
Signal rule: at each pair of consecutive local highs in the weekly yield (window ±4 weeks, merged if closer than 8 weeks), a signal fires if the yield makes a higher high while RSI-14 makes a lower high — bearish divergence, signaling exhausted upside momentum in yields and an impending decline.
Forward-return study: for each signal, the yield change over the following 13 weeks is divided by the trailing 52-week realized volatility of weekly yield changes (vol-adjusted). This is compared against a random baseline: 1000 draws of 16 random non-signal dates each, same vol-adjusted forward-change statistic, mean of each draw collected into a null distribution.
| Date | Yield | RSI-14 | Prior High |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1978-07-14 | 8.69% | 85.71 | 1978-02-17 |
| 1979-02-23 | 9.10% | 73.56 | 1978-07-14 |
| 1980-02-22 | 12.59% | 87.07 | 1979-11-02 |
| 1980-12-12 | 12.82% | 75.88 | 1980-02-22 |
| 1981-02-13 | 13.20% | 59.21 | 1980-12-12 |
| 1988-08-26 | 9.43% | 52.74 | 1988-05-20 |
| 1990-08-24 | 9.17% | 66.67 | 1990-04-27 |
| 1994-07-08 | 7.70% | 69.80 | 1994-05-06 |
| 1996-07-05 | 7.19% | 66.46 | 1996-05-03 |
| 1999-08-06 | 6.16% | 65.00 | 1999-03-26 |
| 2000-01-21 | 6.71% | 67.18 | 1999-10-22 |
| 2013-09-06 | 3.87% | 69.93 | 2013-03-08 |
| 2013-12-27 | 3.94% | 59.34 | 2013-09-06 |
| 2018-05-18 | 3.20% | 55.17 | 2018-03-09 |
| 2025-05-23 | 5.04% | 62.07 | 2025-01-10 |
| 2026-05-15 | 5.12% | 63.64 | 2026-01-30 |
Source: FRED DGS30, Federal Reserve H.15.