Momentum Score = Spearman rank correlation between MA period order and MA value order, sign-flipped, smoothed with a 5-day EMA. +1 = perfect bullish stack (shortest MA highest ... longest MA lowest). -1 = perfect bearish stack (reverse).

How to trade this: Score > 0.85 or < -0.85 = strong trend — bias long USD pairs in the stack's direction (long DXY/UUP, or short EURUSD/AUDUSD/gold on bullish reads, and the reverse on bearish reads). |Score| < 0.5 = ribbon tangled, no trend — avoid trend-following USD trades, range/mean-reversion regime instead. Use the score as a filter, not a standalone trigger: only take breakout/pullback entries that agree with its sign — it's built from lagging MAs. A cross through 0 flags an early regime shift; crossing ±0.5 flags the trend strengthening or weakening, useful for scaling in/out. Divergence — price makes a new high/low while the score rolls over — signals fading momentum: tighten stops, watch for reversal. Ribbon shape (top panel): wide and ordered = trend has room to run; compressed/crossing = consolidation, often resolves into a breakout in the direction the score confirms.

Fancier Steps tab — uses geometrically (log) spaced MA periods instead of linear 10-day steps. Adjacent linear MAs (e.g. MA110 vs MA120) move almost in lockstep, adding redundancy and noise to the rank ordering. Log spacing makes each MA represent a genuinely distinct timeframe, giving a less choppy, more information-dense score at the cost of a sparser-looking ribbon.

Backtest (Linear ribbon, 2004–present, sampled every 10 days): forward-return stats by signal bucket. Cell = Hit Rate / Avg Return / Median Return, where "hit" = price moved in the direction the bucket favors (up for Bullish/Strong Bullish, down for Bearish/Strong Bearish). Edge is strongest in the 5–35d range and decays toward breakeven by 40–60d.

Signal	5d	10d	15d	20d	25d	30d	35d	40d	45d	50d	55d	60d
Strong Bullish	55% / +0.13% / +0.15%	56% / +0.14% / +0.23%	52% / +0.29% / +0.11%	55% / +0.25% / +0.26%	51% / +0.27% / +0.04%	54% / +0.21% / +0.28%	52% / +0.24% / +0.13%	48% / +0.17% / -0.10%	46% / +0.18% / -0.27%	50% / +0.10% / -0.05%	48% / +0.15% / -0.08%	50% / +0.15% / -0.07%
Bullish	52% / +0.01% / +0.04%	55% / +0.16% / +0.06%	48% / +0.10% / -0.12%	42% / +0.05% / -0.40%	52% / +0.21% / +0.17%	54% / +0.11% / +0.08%	49% / +0.02% / -0.12%	43% / -0.10% / -0.26%	46% / -0.13% / -0.35%	48% / -0.16% / -0.14%	42% / -0.18% / -0.34%	40% / -0.41% / -0.60%
Neutral	50% / -0.03% / -0.02%	50% / -0.12% / +0.01%	40% / -0.22% / -0.30%	50% / -0.16% / -0.20%	48% / -0.18% / -0.11%	52% / +0.05% / +0.13%	57% / +0.22% / +0.50%	57% / +0.39% / +0.39%	65% / +0.47% / +0.53%	60% / +0.52% / +0.52%	56% / +0.54% / +0.46%	56% / +0.59% / +0.60%
Bearish	48% / -0.08% / +0.03%	56% / -0.17% / -0.36%	58% / -0.13% / -0.50%	55% / -0.05% / -0.20%	53% / -0.03% / -0.29%	52% / -0.14% / -0.10%	51% / -0.04% / -0.26%	51% / +0.01% / -0.05%	52% / +0.05% / -0.08%	55% / +0.12% / -0.31%	49% / +0.16% / +0.01%	51% / +0.26% / -0.01%
Strong Bearish	52% / +0.01% / -0.04%	45% / +0.08% / +0.11%	51% / +0.10% / -0.04%	49% / +0.11% / +0.09%	49% / +0.12% / +0.02%	49% / +0.14% / +0.08%	48% / +0.09% / +0.05%	47% / +0.10% / +0.12%	48% / +0.13% / +0.05%	45% / +0.18% / +0.22%	47% / +0.20% / +0.12%	47% / +0.24% / +0.20%

Event study — regime-shift entries: instead of averaging every day in a bucket, this looks only at the day the score first crosses a threshold (debounced 60+ trading days apart), then tracks forward returns. Cell = Hit Rate / Avg Return / Median Return. Bullish crossings show real follow-through for 1–4 months before fading; bearish/strong-bearish crossings are weaker and often contrarian (extreme bearish reads tend to mark lows, not accelerate declines).

Event	20d	40d	60d	90d	120d	180d	240d	300d	360d
Cross → Bullish (+0.50) (n=17)	50% / +0.33% / +0.08%	62% / +1.38% / +0.98%	56% / +0.78% / +0.19%	56% / +0.07% / +0.99%	50% / +0.77% / +0.52%	50% / +0.36% / -0.01%	25% / -0.73% / -3.20%	31% / -1.40% / -3.82%	38% / -0.82% / -1.83%
Cross → Strong Bullish (+0.85) (n=19)	68% / +0.98% / +0.53%	63% / +1.00% / +0.52%	58% / -0.23% / +0.18%	58% / +0.26% / +0.58%	58% / +0.27% / +0.40%	47% / +0.12% / -0.59%	37% / -0.94% / -4.15%	42% / -0.41% / -2.40%	44% / -0.38% / -2.30%
Cross → Bearish (-0.50) (n=17)	59% / +0.12% / -0.14%	29% / +0.34% / +0.67%	35% / +0.35% / +0.67%	47% / +0.03% / +0.32%	71% / -0.70% / -0.89%	47% / +0.08% / +0.45%	47% / +0.17% / +0.03%	38% / +1.76% / +1.13%	56% / +1.28% / -0.81%
Cross → Strong Bearish (-0.85) (n=19)	47% / +0.17% / +0.09%	32% / +1.24% / +1.43%	42% / +1.27% / +0.46%	53% / +1.63% / -0.12%	37% / +1.59% / +1.06%	42% / +2.04% / +0.43%	37% / +2.96% / +2.86%	33% / +2.66% / +1.19%	33% / +3.62% / +2.37%